中国天然气资源安全分析
投稿时间:2019-11-05  修订日期:2020-11-12  点此下载全文
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作者单位邮编
黎江峰 北京大学政府管理学院 100083
周娜 中国地质大学(武汉) 430074
吴巧生 中国地质大学(武汉) 
基金项目:国家社科基金重大项目中国战略性三稀矿产资源供给风险治理机制研究(编号:19ZDA112)
中文摘要:识别天然气安全各个环节的风险,科学研判中国天然气资源安全状况,对于提高中国能源安全、保证经济平稳健康运行、落实建设美丽中国的战略部署等具有重要意义。本文通过构建中国天然气资源安全的“供给-消费-贸易”三维空间模型,从天然气资源供给、消费和贸易三个维度评估中国天然气安全状态,并研判未来天然气资源安全在三维空间中的发展走势。结果显示:中国天然气资源安全呈现一种总体不断改善的趋势,尤其是自2013年以来在发展度、持续度、协调度和有效发展度等各项指标均出现了不同程度的提升。改善的主要原因是天然气进口来源多样化水平的提高与成本的下降,以及中国非常规天然气资源在2013年以后实现了规模化开发利用,促进了天然气资源安全供给指数的提高。由此从国际合作和国内挖潜两方面提出了相关政策建议。
中文关键词:三维目标-过程模型  天然气资源  安全评估
 
Natural gas resources security analysis in China
Abstract:It is of great significance to identify the risks in each link of natural gas security and scientifically study and judge the security situation of China's natural gas resources, which is to improve China's energy security, ensure the stable and healthy operation of the economy, and implement the strategic deployment of building a beautiful China.so as to improve China's energy security. In this paper, we constructed a three-dimensional space model of "supply-consumption-trade" of natural gas resources security in China, evaluated the state of China's natural gas security from three dimensions, and judged the development trend of natural gas resource security in the three-dimensional space. The results showed that the natural gas security in China shows a general trend of continuous improvement, especially since 2013, the development degree, sustainability, coordination degree and effective development degree and other indicators have been improved to varying degrees. The improvement is mainly due to the improvement of the diversification level of natural gas import sources and the decrease of cost, as well as the large-scale development and utilization of unconventional natural gas resources in China after 2013, which promotes the improvement of the safety supply index of natural gas resources. Therefore, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from two aspects of international cooperation and domestic potential tapping.
keywords:three dimensional model  natural gas resources  security assessment
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