2020~2030年中国天然气需求预测
投稿时间:2019-09-03  修订日期:2020-09-24  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
郑明贵 江西理工大学 矿业贸易与投资研究中心 mgz268@sina.com 
王 萍 江西理工大学 矿业贸易与投资研究中心 943380170@qq.com 
钟聪红 江西理工大学 矿业贸易与投资研究中心  
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国战略性矿产资源国家安全评估与预警系统研究(2020-2050)”(18AGL002);国家自然科学基金重点项目“大数据环境下的评价理论、方法和应用”(71631006);江西理工大学重大项目培育计划“大数据驱动下国家矿产资源安全战略管理现代化研究”(项目编号:19ZDPY-08);江西省青年井冈学者奖励计划资助
中文摘要:中国天然气资源虽较为丰富,但由于国内需求的不断上升,供需矛盾日益尖锐。实现对未来天然气需求量更加精准的预测,有助于天然气生产、进出口的安排以及能源战略的制定。本文分析了全球天然气分布以及中国需求状况,找出影响中国天然气资源需求的主要因素,建立基于BP神经网络系统的中国天然气资源2020~2030年需求情景模型,并测算了三个不同情景下的天然气需求量。研究结果表明:①2009~2018年,中国天然气消费总体呈现上涨趋势。消费增速持续超过产量增速;除了2015年以外,消费增速领跑于GDP增速,并且2017~2018年有扩大趋势,2018年天然气消费增速约是GDP增速的三倍;②中国GDP、居民用电平均销售价格以及天然气期货价格是影响中国天然气资源需求的主要因素;③情景预测显示,在未来十年,中国天然气需求将不断增加,进口量也将持续增加。2030年天然气平均需求总量将达到4 363.27亿m3,2030年平均进口量将达到2 245.07亿m3。2024年天然气平均对外依存度达到51.24%,冲破50%的国际警戒线,2030年达到51.46%。
中文关键词:天然气  需求  情景分析  BP神经网络
 
Forecast of China Natural Gas Demand from 2020 to 2030
Abstract:Although China’s natural gas resources are abundant, the contradiction between supply and demand of natural gas resources is increasingly sharp due to the rising domestic demand. Achieving a more accurate forecast of future natural gas demand is beneficial to the arrangement of natural gas production, import and export, and the formulation of energy strategy. This paper analyzed the distribution of global natural gas and China’s domestic demand, identified the main factors influencing the demand of natural gas resources in China, established a demand scenario model for China’s natural gas resources based on BP neural network system from 2020 to 2030, and then calculated the demand of natural gas resources in three different scenarios. The following findings were achieved. ①China’s natural gas consumption showed an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2018. The growth rate of the consumption continued to exceed that of the production. In addition to 2015, the growth rate of the consumption led that of GDP and there was an expansion trend from 2017 to 2018. In 2018, the growth rate of natural gas consumption was about three times that of GDP. ②China’s GDP, average price of residential electricity, and natural gas futures prices are the main factors influencing the demand of China’s natural gas resources. ③The demand and import of natural gas will continue to increase in the next decade. The average demand and import volume of natural gas in 2030 will reach 436.327 billion cubic meters and 224.507 billion cubic meters respectively. In 2024, the average external dependence of natural gas will reach 51.24%, breaking through the international warning line of 50%, and will reach 51.46% in 2030.
keywords:natural gas  demand  scenario analysis  BP neural network
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