煤层气开发社会生态环境风险评价研究—基于ISM的可达矩阵与FCM模型
投稿时间:2019-09-01  修订日期:2021-01-16  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
纪晓东 太原理工大学经济管理学院 644609825@qq.com 
薛晔 太原理工大学经济管理学院 xueye0412@126.com 
薛崇义 太原理工大学经济管理学院  
基金项目:国家软科学研究计划项目;山西省软科学基金项目;山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目
中文摘要:针对煤层气产业迅速发展引发的社会生态环境问题日益严重的现状,本文将ISM的可达矩阵、三角模糊数、非线性Hebbian学习算法引入模糊认知图模型中,并以沁水盆地郑庄区块煤层气开采区为例进行风险评价,结果表明:(1)传统模糊认知图采用专家法获取指标间相关关系主观性强及关联矩阵获取难度大的缺点得到改进,且改进后的模糊认知图模型更加准确稳定。(2)郑庄区块风险评价等级中,大气主要污染物最大地面浓度占标率、生产机械化程度、经济损失比分别为煤层气开发前、中、后期对社会生态环境风险影响最大的因素。
中文关键词:煤层气开发  社会生态环境风险  模糊认知图  可达矩阵
 
Study on risk assessment of social ecological environmentin coalbed methane development
Abstract:In view of the increasingly serious social and ecological environmental problems caused by the rapid development of coalbed methane industry, this paper introduces the reachability matrix of ISM, triangular fuzzy number and nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm into the fuzzy cognitive map model, and takes the coalbed methane exploitation area of Zhengzhuang block in Qinshui basin as an example. The results show that: (1) the traditional fuzzy cognitive map using expert method to obtain the correlation between indicators is subjective and difficult to obtain the correlation matrix has been improved, and the improved fuzzy cognitive map model is more accurate and stable. (2) in the risk assessment grade of Zhengzhuang block, the maximum surface concentration of main atmospheric pollutants, the degree of production mechanization and the ratio of economic loss are the factors that have the greatest influence on the social ecological environment risk before, middle and later stage of coalbed methane development, respectively.
keywords:coalbed methane development  social ecological environment risk  fuzzy cognitive map  reachability matrix
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