“项目换资源”模式投资风险评价
投稿时间:2018-11-14  修订日期:2019-01-01  点此下载全文
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饶振宾 南昌工程学院经贸学院 rzbin2012@163.com 
中文摘要:中国公司与刚果(金)政府以“项目换资源”模式承建刚果(金)的基础设施项目,投资开发刚果(金)的铜钴矿产资源。该投资模式为中国企业对外矿业投资的首次尝试。为确保投资成功,中方企业集团在刚果(金)实施“项目换资源”战略海外矿业投资过程中,需要识别存在的风险,判断投资风险的高低。本文采用专家调查法,通过问卷调查和访谈中国公司员工和领导,组织专家讨论,制定了矿业投资风险评价指标体系;分别采用了专家打分和AHP软件(yaahpV10.1)计算权重,对68个风险因素进行了筛选,得出排序前20的风险因素。由于两种方法对风险因素排序有所差别,本文将两种方法的风险因素合并到一起,得出新的投资风险综合评价指标体系;然后运用模糊综合判断法对综合评价指标体系进行了风险评价,明确矿业投资的风险等级为高风险,需要做好风险管控。
中文关键词:海外矿业,项目换资源, 投资风险,AHP 模糊综合评判法,
 
The risk assessment of “project for resources” investment mode
Abstract:The Chinese conmany and the Congo (DRC) government established a jointing venture company. "Project for resources" investment mode is that the Chinese company invests the construction of the infrastructure projects for the development of copper cobalt ore resources in Congo (DRC). This investment pattern is the first attempt for the Chinese enterprises to invest foreign mineral resources. To ensure the success of the investment, the Chinese enterprise group in Congo needs to identify the presence of risk and determine the level of investment risk in the process of implementing the “project for the resource” strategy of overseas mining investment. Using the expert investigation method and the questionnaire survey method and interviewing with the staff and the leadership and organizing the experts to discuss, we formulate an evaluation index system of mining investment risk. Respectively, using the expert survey to score and AHP software (yaahpV10.1) to calculate the weight, the 68 risk factors were screened. We get the risk factors of the sort before 20. Because of the difference of the two kinds of methods to sort the risk factors, the risk factors of the two methods are combined. The new comprehensive evaluation index system of investment risk is obtained. Using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk of the comprehensive evaluation index system, it is determined that the investment risk is high risk and the risk management and control is needed.
keywords:Oversea mining  Project for resources  Investment risk  AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  
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