“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源投资风险评价
投稿时间:2017-11-18  修订日期:2018-08-07  点此下载全文
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杨俊 中国石油化工集团公司 yangjun625@163.com 
中文摘要:受“一带一路”倡议影响,中国海外油气投资迎来诸多机遇,但风险因素依存。本文对“一带一路”倡议下海外油气资源投资风险进行了识别,建立了资源、政治与法律、经济、自然环境风险4个二级指标,构建了海外油气资源投资风险指标体系;建立了AHP-Fuzzy综合模型,对阿塞拜疆等16个“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源投资风险进行了实证评价。结果显示:在阿塞拜疆、伊朗、阿曼、埃及、印度尼西亚、越南、哈萨克斯坦、泰国进行油气投资属于高风险等级;在沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、印度进行油气投资属于中等风险;在俄罗斯、卡塔尔、科威特进行油气投资属于较低风险;在阿联酋、罗马尼亚进行油气投资属于低风险。提出如下对策建议:针对不同风险等级的国家,因地施策;推进“一带一路”能源合作机制建立;完善企业海外投资相关的法律法规。
中文关键词:一带一路  油气资源投资  风险评价  层次分析法  模糊综合评价模型
 
Risk evaluation of oil and gas resources investment in countries along the Belt and Road
Abstract:With the smooth implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, overseas oil and gas investment of China ushers in a series of opportunities, but still faces many risks. This paper identifies the risks of overseas oil and gas investment under the Belt and Road Initiative. From the resource risk, political and legal risk, economic risk and environmental risk, the paper also builds risk evaluation index system of overseas oil and gas investment. Then the AHP-Fuzzy model is established to evaluate oil and gas investment risk of 16 countries along the Belt and Road. The result shows that oil and gas investment in Azerbaijan, Iran, Oman, Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Thailand belong to the high risk level; oil and gas investments in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and India belong to the medium risk level; oil and gas investment in Russia, Qatar and Kuwait are lower risk; oil and gas investment in the UAE and Romania are low risk. Finally, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: taking different countermeasures according to different risk level of each country; promoting the establishment of the Belt and Road energy cooperation mechanism; perfecting the laws and regulations related to the overseas investment of enterprises.
keywords:The Belt and Road  Oil and gas resources investment  Risk evaluation  AHP  FUZZY
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