全球天然气发展格局及我国天然气发展方向分析
投稿时间:2017-12-25  修订日期:2018-03-12  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
范照伟 中国石化石油勘探开发研究院 fanzw.syky@sinopec.com 
基金项目:涪陵页岩气开发示范工程
中文摘要:全球能源消费结构正在向更加绿色和低碳发展方向转型,天然气将在能源结构转型中发挥重要作用。世界范围内天然气资源丰富,但是区域分布并不均衡,中东、欧洲及欧亚大陆天然气储量占73%;全球天然气储产量以年均2%左右的增速持续增长,并且能满足未来很长一段时间内的消费需求;全球天然气消费量占一次能源消费量比重达到24.1%,未来还将持续上升,其中90%的消费增量将来自于亚太地区等发展中经济体。我国天然气储产量自“十一五”以来年均增长8.2%和7.7%,但是未来难以维持高增长,页岩气将成为重要气源;天然气占我国一次能源消费比重仅6.3%,预计到2030年将达到15%左右,民用气和发电用气是主要增长点。我国天然气对外依存度34.3%,未来还将不断上升,管网和储气库等基础设施建设还需要完善。加大常规气勘探开发力度、大力发展非常规天然气以及加强对外能源合作是满足我国天然气供给的重要保障。
中文关键词:全球能源消费  绿色低碳发展  结构转型  天然气  资源格局  消费格局
 
Global natural gas development pattern and the analysis of development direction of natural gas in China
Abstract:The global energy consumption structure is moving towards a green and low-carbon direction; natural gas is considered as the most important transitional energy for global energy consumption transformation in the future. Natural gas is abundant in the world, but the regional distribution is not balanced, the Middle East, Europe and Eurasia have 73% of the world''s natural gas reserves; the global natural gas production can meet the demand of natural gas consumer in a long period; the global natural gas consumption accounts for 24.1% of primary energy consumption and will continue to rise in the future, and the developing economies are major growth drivers. China''s natural gas reserves and production is difficult to maintain high growth, shale gas will be an important source of gas. Natural gas accounts for only 6.3% of China''s primary energy consumption and has huge growth potential, gas for civil and power generation is the main growth point. China’s natural gas dependence on foreign countries continued to rise, and pipe network and gas storage needs to be further strengthened. Increase unconventional gas development, expanding the scale of imports and the diversification of gas sources is an important guarantee to meet China’s natural gas supply.
keywords:global energy consumption  green and low-carbon development  structure transformation  natural gas  resource pattern  consumption pattern
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