天然铀供需和成本的趋势研究
投稿时间:2016-05-27  修订日期:2017-01-05  点此下载全文
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作者单位E-mail
幸建华 中广核铀业发展有限公司 liuyunhui@cgnpc.com.cn 
徐喆 中广核铀业发展有限公司  
陈絮 中广核铀业发展有限公司  
中文摘要:随着我国核电的发展,天然铀价格逐渐成为业界关注的焦点。我国企业在实施海外资源投资、贸易、海外矿山运营等业务时,国际铀市场变化趋势是关键的考量因素之一。准确把握未来市场价格,可以在控制和降低成本方面获得收益。本论文旨在从铀产品供需和成本角度解释和预测未来铀价变化趋势。由于全球铀矿潜在供应较充足,加之大量的二次供应,两因素决定了未来10年铀价大幅上涨的概率降低,国际铀价总体将呈缓慢上升态势,2015、2020、2025年铀价分别为每磅45美元、52美元、62美元。2025年以后,需要更高成本的矿山投产才能满足核电需求。要指出的是,市场供大于求时,市场价格可以低于全成本(如目前阶段),生产商保持矿山维持运转即可,未必要覆盖折旧、并购等成本。反之价格可以高于全成本。
中文关键词:天然铀、供应、需求、成本、价格
 
Study on international uranium price trend based on relation between uranium supply and demand and uranium cost
Abstract:With the development of China's nuclear power, uranium prices gradually become the focus of the industry.The international uranium market trends is one of the key considerations when China's enterprises are in the implementation of overseas investment in resources, trade, and operate overseas uranium deposits. Enterprises can control and reduce costs by accurately grasping the future market price. The purpose of this paper is to explain and forecast the future uranium price from the perspective of uranium supply, demand and cost. The uranium price in the next ten years will be increased slowly due to the potential primary and secondary supply, both of which will reduce the probability of uranium price rising in the recent future. The price in 2015,2020,2025 will be $ 45, $ 52, and $ 62 per pound respectively. After 2025, a higher-cost mine would be required to meet the demand for nuclear power beyond 2025.
keywords:natural uranium  supply  demand  cost  price
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